Gonzales Research – The Latest Baltimore Democratic Mayoral Primary Poll

There’s a new poll just out from the well-known and highly respected Gonzales Research organization. It covers the Mayor’s race and it’s an independent poll that is unaffiliated with any campaign, political organization or media. The PDF charts below will tell you everything about it that you need to know.

While we are comparing the Gonzales poll to the one the Sun published on November 21, 2015, please keep in mind that their results are based on different samples that were surveyed 2 months apart. There was some campaigning between the two polls, but campaigns are just revving up now so other polls taken weeks from now could show very different results.

Gonzales Research Poll – Mayoral Democratic Primary Candidates

Just a couple of comments…

One is that, as we’ve pointed out in another recent post (“Beating Sheila Dixon” ), if her numbers continue to increase in absolute terms, even while Catherine Pugh and Carl Stokes, to a lesser extent, are closing in on her, at some point she’ll have the plurality she needs to win. And that will be that. That’s good news if you’re a Dixon supporter, but bad news if you want a Mayor who will help create the jobs we need to end unemployment and poverty in our city.

Second, all the “Other” candidates should drop out although they aren’t having a sufficient impact to make much difference even if they do.

Third and most important, Nick Mosby, Elizabeth Embry and David Warnock should consider doing the same, dropping out that is. It’s not that they’re not competent people or that they don’t have the money to run – especially David Warnock and perhaps Elizabeth Embry too. It’s that they don’t have the following.

Nick Mosby is new to the City Council and has never held any other elective office. His principal claim to fame is that he’s the husband of State’s Attorney Marilyn Mosby. That’s interesting, but not enough. More importantly, neither Elizabeth Embry nor David Warnock has ever run for office, let alone citywide for Mayor. They’re inexperienced candidates, with limited, that is, narrowly defined resumes and no established following among likely voters.

Their problem is that Ms. Embry and Mr. Warnock are trying to sell two things a time: Who they are and why you should vote for them as opposed to any of the other candidates with whom you already have rapport. As a candidate, you can try to overcome those deficiencies if you have enough money, but it’s only a short-term investment. Dixon, Pugh and Stokes, by comparison have been around for a while, they’ve held office, run citywide races and earned their relationship with likely voters.

Maybe Ms. Embry and/or Mr. Warnock can manage to make a winning impression on voters with really effective campaigning that stands out against the fray that will be increasing more dense over the next 3 months. Good for them if they do, no kidding. But if they don’t show substantial movement in the polls soon, all 3 of them, including Mr. Mosby, should get out of the way and let voters – and money – focus on what is increasing looking like a three leader race.

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